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Elon Musk's SpaceX Overconfidence Quantified to Enable the Computation of Realistic Predictions

Abstract
Elon Musk makes a lot of wild predictions, and if you haven’t noticed he often doesn’t meet his own deadlines. In this article I compute numerically how inaccurate his predictions are when it comes to SpaceX and Tesla, so we can adjust his predictions to enable more accurate forecasting.

SpaceX
Elon Musk made launch rate predictions of 20 SpaceX launches in 2017 and 30 SpaceX launches in 2018. Only 18 launches occurred in 2017 and 21 in 2018. This is a growth overestimation rate of 25% and 33% respectively for the two years, or an average overestimation of 29%.

SpaceX Implications
Elon Musk has stated intentions to send cargo missions to Mars by 2022, and a tourist mission to the Moon by 2023. Accounting for his overconfidence you can estimate that Musk will likely actually go to Mars by November 2023 and the Moon by March 2025.

References
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI
https://www.spacex.com/missions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu7WJD8vpAQ

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