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Showing posts from March, 2019

Solutions to Ageism and Illism in the Labor Market

The Root of the Problem The problem of ageism in the labor market stems from the connection of employment and health insurance. Most of the full-time employment in the United States includes health insurance as part of the benefit package given to employees. Why is this the case? This is the case because there is a lower tax burden on employers and employees if part of the normal salary is given in the form of health insurance instead of cash. This is a problem because as people age their risk for health problems increase, which in turn cause the cost to employers to increase, which provides an incentive for employers to discriminate against old or those with poor health. Solution #1 Simply end the tax benefit that is given to health insurance. This would lead to the current wages paid in terms of health care to instead be paid in terms on money. Solution #2 Legalize discrimination. How could this help the situation? This could help the situation by enabling employers to either ...

Elon Musk's SpaceX Overconfidence Quantified to Enable the Computation of Realistic Predictions

Abstract Elon Musk makes a lot of wild predictions, and if you haven’t noticed he often doesn’t meet his own deadlines. In this article I compute numerically how inaccurate his predictions are when it comes to SpaceX and Tesla, so we can adjust his predictions to enable more accurate forecasting. SpaceX Elon Musk made launch rate predictions of 20 SpaceX launches in 2017 and 30 SpaceX launches in 2018. Only 18 launches occurred in 2017 and 21 in 2018. This is a growth overestimation rate of 25% and 33% respectively for the two years, or an average overestimation of 29%. SpaceX Implications Elon Musk has stated intentions to send cargo missions to Mars by 2022, and a tourist mission to the Moon by 2023. Accounting for his overconfidence you can estimate that Musk will likely actually go to Mars by November 2023 and the Moon by March 2025. References https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdUX3ypDVwI https://www.spacex.com/missions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu7WJD8vpAQ

Bank Reserves and Economic Growth

Abstract The full reserve vs fractional reserve debate has been haunting the Austrian school of economics as a thorn in our side. In this article I articulate the solution to the question of which banking system leads to a greater rate of economic growth and elucidate how the adoption of either system would be unlikely to lead to economic disaster. Introduction Both full and fractional reserve banks have effects on the economy at large. Fractional reserve banks, through their amalgamation of loanable funds, lower the interest rates on loans for both productive and consumptive endeavors. A full reserve banking system, by locking savings out of the economy, lead to the purchasing power of money being higher than it otherwise would have been for, again, both production and consumption. Economic Growth When asking which banking system grows the economy quicker, what is fundamentally being asked is which system puts more purchasing power in the hands of producers relative to consumer...

The Real Real Annual Rate of Return on Everything

Note that these aren't per se historical averages using all of the available data, but rather estimates made to be as accurate as possible for the next 5-10 years. To see some historical data back to 1870 look to my reference section. Educational assets assume a full ride and scheduled completion speed (4 years for bachelors, 2 for associates, 3 for doctorate after masters). Also note that while some investments have a high rate of return, not all investments are compoundable (2 bachelors degrees give you little marginal benefit) while others are (stocks, bonds). [Work in Progress] General Bachelor’s Degree: 21% High School Diploma: 20% Masters: 10% Associates: 8% Doctorate (Nonprofessional): 8% Dow Jones Industrial Index: 7.5% Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index: 6.5% Solar Panels (In Sunny California): 6% Moody's AAA Bond Index: 3.75% United States Federal Bonds: 2.5% Life Annuity: 2% Certificate of Deposit: 1.5% Precious Metals: 1% United States Dollars:...